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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to face Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Qadisiyah FC (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.

Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.40 PPG for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 2.80 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.07 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.275 / defence 0.640 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.002 / defence 0.560. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.437. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 1.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.560 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.640 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 59 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 38% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 20% BTTS from recent games.

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