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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Riyadh face Al-Ittihad FC.

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Match Analysis

Al Riyadh host Al-Ittihad FC at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Riyadh have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al Riyadh have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad FC's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al Riyadh's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Riyadh register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ittihad FC have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Al Riyadh.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.

It is worth noting that Al-Ittihad FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Al Riyadh trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 58% and Al-Ittihad FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 52% | Al-Ittihad FC 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.99 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.679 / defence 0.945 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.097 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.437. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Al Riyadh games / 59 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 24% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.08. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al Riyadh 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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