Al Riyadh 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Riyadh face Al-Ittihad FC.

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Match Analysis

Al Riyadh host Al-Ittihad FC at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al Riyadh have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

At home, Al Riyadh have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ittihad FC — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad FC's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al Riyadh's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al Riyadh's games and 80% of Al-Ittihad FC's (from Al Riyadh's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Al-Ittihad FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Al Riyadh.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2025, ended Al Riyadh 1–2 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ittihad FC win.

Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Data

Al Riyadh trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Riyadh 58% and Al-Ittihad FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 52% | Al-Ittihad FC 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Riyadh surrender their half-time lead 64% of the time, while Al-Ittihad FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.99 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.679 / defence 0.945 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.097 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.437. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.679 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 59 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 59.

Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 24% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 4.13 | Draw 3.58 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.09. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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