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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Al-Hazm travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 April 2026, 17:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Ittihad FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Al-Hazm have managed just 0 wins.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 58% and Al-Hazm 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 46% | Al-Hazm 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 xG and Al-Hazm 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.859 / defence 0.722 | Al-Hazm attack 0.733 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.433. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Al-Ittihad FC games / 26 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hazm 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.

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