Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-0 NEOM – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium plays host to Al-Qadisiyah FC versus NEOM in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Thursday 12 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
NEOM's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
NEOM's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 2L across their last 9 road games (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.67 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favour (2.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 home games and NEOM's last 9 away games) — Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, NEOM in 78%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Al-Qadisiyah FC edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 3–1 NEOM — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
NEOM — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% and NEOM 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | NEOM 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.10 xG and NEOM 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.333 / defence 0.750 | NEOM attack 0.892 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.332. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.333 — their 2.10 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC have a tight defence (rating 0.750), which is pulling NEOM's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 54 games and NEOM's last 20.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% | Draw 21% | NEOM 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.54 | Draw 4.84 | NEOM 6.91. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (65%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 home games and NEOM's last 9 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% (last 10 home games) | NEOM 78% (last 9 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM | Competition: Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% | Draw 21% | NEOM 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.10 / NEOM 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.333 / def 0.750 | NEOM attack 0.892 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
NEOM xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM FAQs
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Thursday 12 February 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 - 0 NEOM.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM is a Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 65% chance of winning, NEOM a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.33x the league average against NEOM's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEOM's attack (0.89x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 54 games and NEOM's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
65%
1.54
21%
4.84
14%
6.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.99
0.89
NEOM xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
6.91
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
2%
56.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.89 for NEOM, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 13W 5D 2L from 20 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
NEOM, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 8L across 20 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NEOM heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 5W 4D 0L from their last 9 home games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEOM's away record stands at 4W 3D 2L across their last 9 away games, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; NEOM are on 1.30 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; NEOM in 65%.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
NEOM
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC (Home) vs NEOM (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
NEOM
Blended
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM Form FAQs
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 13W 5D 2L in their last 20 games (2.20 PPG), while NEOM have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or NEOM away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.11 PPG; NEOM away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or NEOM been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, NEOM in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
NEOM
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, NEOM have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: NEOM 0-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 78% for NEOM — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 56% for NEOM. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / NEOM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 78% of NEOM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 56% of NEOM's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 67% of NEOM's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out NEOM 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat NEOM 1-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.10 xG and NEOM 0.89 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Qadisiyah FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. NEOM landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.75 against NEOM attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% | Draw 21% | NEOM 14%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 70%, NEOM 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
NEOM's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. NEOM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.