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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al Okhdood and Al-Qadisiyah FC meet at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al Okhdood have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 3D 5L at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the stronger side — 2.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Okhdood have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al Okhdood 0W, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W, 2D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 0.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Al Okhdood half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 49% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 49% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.89 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.748 / defence 1.311 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.333 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.355. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.333 — the away xG of 2.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Al Okhdood games / 55 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 12% | Draw 18% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 8.33 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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