Al-Qadisiyah FC 4-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ettifaq to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League (matchday 10). Kick-off is Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Apr 2025, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–1 Al-Ettifaq — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% versus Al-Ettifaq 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 55% | Al-Ettifaq 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.262 / defence 0.680 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.013 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.393. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.262 — their 2.06 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC have a tight defence (rating 0.680), which is pulling Al-Ettifaq's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 56 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 56.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 62% | Draw 21% | Al-Ettifaq 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.60 | Draw 4.73 | Al-Ettifaq 6.11. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (62%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 62% | Draw 21% | Al-Ettifaq 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06 / Al-Ettifaq 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.262 / def 0.680 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.013 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al-Ettifaq xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 23 February 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 4 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 62% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.26x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 56 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
62%
1.60
21%
4.73
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.02
0.96
Al-Ettifaq xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
13%
7.87
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
2%
48.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.96 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 36W 10D 10L from 56 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 18L across 56 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 19W 6D 2L from their last 27 home games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 13W 7D 7L across their last 27 away games, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.39 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 36W 10D 10L in their last 56 games (2.11 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 25W 13D 18L in their last 56 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Feb 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won Al-Qadisiyah FC 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 52%, Al-Ettifaq 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 56% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 67% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 56% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 74% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Ettifaq 4-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.96 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.68 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 62% | Draw 21% | Al-Ettifaq 16%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 55%, Al-Ettifaq 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.