🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al-Hilal Saudi FC make the trip to Al Taawon Arena to face Al Taawon in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al Taawon have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Al Taawon Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al Taawon are significantly better at Al Taawon Arena than their overall form suggests.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.10 PPG clear of Al Taawon in recent Pro League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across the last 8 meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Al Taawon's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Al-Hilal Saudi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 46% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 39% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.26 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.026 / defence 1.001 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.627 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.378. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.627 — the away xG of 2.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Al Taawon games / 56 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Taawon 20% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights