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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 71% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hazm 1.10 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hazm register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ittihad FC have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Al-Hazm.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Al-Hazm trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 59% versus Al-Ittihad FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 64% | Al-Ittihad FC 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.15 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.823 / defence 1.639 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.234 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.378. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 2.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Al-Hazm games / 56 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 13% | Draw 16% | Al-Ittihad FC 71%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 7.69 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 71% — clear model lean.

The Poisson model projects 3.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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