Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to face Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 6W 4D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (80%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.40 PPG for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 2.80 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ahli Jeddah edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2025, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.07 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.275 / defence 0.640 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.002 / defence 0.560. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.437. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.275 — their 1.07 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a tight defence (rating 0.560, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output down. Al-Qadisiyah FC have a tight defence (rating 0.640), which is pulling Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 59 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 59.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 38% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.66 | Draw 3.05 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 38% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.07 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.275 / def 0.640 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.002 / def 0.560 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah FAQs
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 38% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.27) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.56), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.00x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 59 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
38%
2.66
33%
3.05
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.00
0.92
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.92 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 38W 11D 10L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 40W 9D 10L from 59 games, 2.19 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.12 PPG for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 2.19 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 2.31 PPG from their last 29 home games (20W 7D 2L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 19W 3D 7L from their last 29 away games — 2.07 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.00 scored and 0.88 conceded. Al-Qadisiyah FC's scoring rate against Al-Ahli Jeddah's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC (Home) vs Al-Ahli Jeddah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Form FAQs
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 38W 11D 10L in their last 59 games (2.12 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 40W 9D 10L in their last 59 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.31 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 8 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC on 25 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 September 2026: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 52%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 34% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 31% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 34% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 55% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.07 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.92 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.64 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.00 / defence 0.56, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 38% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.12 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.