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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Al-Qadisiyah FC.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.40 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Al-Ettifaq's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 0–4 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al-Ettifaq trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 57% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 55% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.43 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.051 / defence 0.956 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.405 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.410. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Al-Ettifaq games / 60 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 29% | Draw 22% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.08. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

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