Al Okhdood 0-5 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Fayha (41%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Okhdood face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al-Fayha at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Okhdood stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Fayha have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fayha — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al Okhdood's games and 70% of Al-Fayha's (from Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Al-Fayha have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Al Okhdood.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2025, ended Al Okhdood 0–2 Al-Fayha — a Al-Fayha win.
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 52% versus Al-Fayha 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 52% | Al-Fayha 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.56 xG and Al-Fayha 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.814 / defence 1.378 | Al-Fayha attack 0.901 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.403. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 1.266 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Okhdood's projected output up. Al Okhdood's defence rating of 1.378 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 58 games and Al-Fayha's last 58.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.94 | Draw 4.08 | Al-Fayha 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.74) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Al Okhdood 1.56 / Al-Fayha 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.814 / def 1.378 | Al-Fayha attack 0.901 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Al-Fayha xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha FAQs
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Al Okhdood 0 - 5 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha is a Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 34% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Okhdood's last 58 games and Al-Fayha's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
34%
2.94
24%
4.08
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.31
1.74
Al-Fayha xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
6%
16.78
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.74 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 12W 11D 35L from 58 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 25L across 58 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Okhdood on 0.81 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 5W 7D 17L from their last 29 home games — 0.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 6W 7D 16L across their last 29 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.95 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Okhdood (Home) vs Al-Fayha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha Form FAQs
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 12W 11D 35L in their last 58 games (0.81 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 15W 18D 25L in their last 58 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fayha's away record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.76 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Mar 2026, when Al-Fayha won Al Okhdood 0-5 Al-Fayha.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
6
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Al Okhdood 0-5 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 59%, Al-Fayha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al Okhdood and 62% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 31% of games; Al-Fayha in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 48% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Okhdood's matches and 62% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 79% of Al-Fayha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fayha run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Okhdood 0-5 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.56 xG and Al-Fayha 1.74 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al Okhdood fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Fayha outscored their 1.74 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.81 / defence 1.38 against Al-Fayha attack 0.90 / defence 1.27, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 41%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 52%, Al-Fayha 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.81 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.