Al Okhdood 1-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Okhdood face Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al-Ettifaq at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League (matchday 30). Kick-off is Thursday 30 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 0D 8L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ettifaq stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Al-Ettifaq's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Al Okhdood) versus 1.00 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al Okhdood's 30% BTTS rate and Al-Ettifaq's 30% (from Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Okhdood, 3 for Al-Ettifaq and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Jan 2026, ended Al Okhdood 0–2 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Ettifaq win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 48% versus Al-Ettifaq 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 49% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.15 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.695 / defence 1.308 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.788 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.386. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.695 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Al-Ettifaq's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.43. Al Okhdood's defence rating of 1.308 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ettifaq's projected output up. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 63 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 63.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 43%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.29 | Draw 3.80 | Al-Ettifaq 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches — though recent form (Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 30 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Al Okhdood 1.15 / Al-Ettifaq 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.695 / def 1.308 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.788 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al-Ettifaq xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 30 April 2026 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Okhdood 1 - 3 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 30% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.69x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Okhdood's last 63 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
30%
3.29
26%
3.80
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.58
1.43
Al-Ettifaq xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
7%
13.72
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.43 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Okhdood come into this having played 63 games, going 13W 11D 39L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.46 PPG from 63 outings (26W 14D 23L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Okhdood's home form reads 6W 7D 18L across their last 31 home games, a 0.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 31 away games (13W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.35 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Al Okhdood (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Okhdood
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 13W 11D 39L in their last 63 games (0.79 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 26W 14D 23L in their last 63 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.81 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 30 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Okhdood have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 April 2026: Al Okhdood 1-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 41% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 55%, Al-Ettifaq 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al Okhdood) and 55% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al Okhdood's games and 61% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 55% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 77% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Okhdood 1-3 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.15 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.43 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.69 / defence 1.31 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 43%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 49%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.