Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ettifaq to King Saud University Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have gone 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 9W 0D 1L at King Saud University Stadium — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Al-Nassr have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Nassr, 2 for Al-Ettifaq and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 93% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 61% versus Al-Ettifaq 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 69% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.60 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.419 / defence 0.794 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.827 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.420. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.419 — their λ of 2.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Al-Nassr games / 62 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 73% | Draw 16% | Al-Ettifaq 11%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Ettifaq 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 73% | Draw 16% | Al-Ettifaq 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Nassr 2.60 / Al-Ettifaq 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.419 / def 0.794 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.827 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al-Ettifaq xG
56%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr 1 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 73% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Nassr 3W | Draws 3 | Al-Ettifaq 2W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.42x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
73%
1.37
16%
6.32
11%
8.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.53
0.93
Al-Ettifaq xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.32
16%
Draw
8.95
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
7%
13.44
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
1%
120.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.93 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 44W 8D 10L from 62 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 22L across 62 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 21W 5D 4L from 30 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 13W 7D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.37 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 44W 8D 10L in their last 62 games (2.26 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 26W 14D 22L in their last 62 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.27 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 25 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
3
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 63%, Al-Ettifaq 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Al-Nassr and 57% for Al-Ettifaq. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Al-Nassr's games and 63% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al-Nassr's matches and 57% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Ettifaq 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.60 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.93 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Nassr fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.42 / defence 0.79 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 73% | Draw 16% | Al-Ettifaq 11%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 69%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.