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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Najma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al Najma in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al Najma's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

On the road, Al Najma have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Al-Ettifaq, 0.60 for Al Najma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 7.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2026, ended 4–3 with Al-Ettifaq winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Al Najma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 57% and Al Najma 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Najma 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 2.59 xG and Al Najma 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.110 / defence 1.061 | Al Najma attack 0.688 / defence 1.508. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.435. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.508 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Al-Ettifaq games / 30 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Draw 17% | Al Najma 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Al Najma 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.59 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean.

The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Najma 50% BTTS from recent games.

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