Al Khaleej Saihat 3-1 Al Najma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Najma make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Khaleej Saihat's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al Khaleej Saihat are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Najma have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Najma's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 0.60 for Al Najma. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al Khaleej Saihat 0W, Al Najma 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Al Najma half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 66% and Al Najma 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Khaleej Saihat 66% | Al Najma 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 2.14 xG and Al Najma 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.944 / defence 1.138 | Al Najma attack 0.704 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.382. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 29 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 61% | Draw 20% | Al Najma 19%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Al Najma 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al Khaleej Saihat (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Khaleej Saihat are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Al Najma 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 61% | Draw 20% | Al Najma 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 2.14 / Al Najma 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.944 / def 1.138 | Al Najma attack 0.704 / def 1.459 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al Najma xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma?
Al Khaleej Saihat 3 - 1 Al Najma.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 61% chance of winning, Al Najma a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Najma will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Najma?
Record (1 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 1 | Al Najma 0W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Najma in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Al Najma (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al Najma's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. Flip it around — Al Najma's attack (0.70x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 62/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
61%
1.64
20%
4.88
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.25
1.11
Al Najma xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
12%
8.51
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
2%
45.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Najma expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.11 for Al Najma, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 8W 7D 14L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Al Najma's form line: 2W 5D 22L from 29 games, 0.38 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Al Khaleej Saihat are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Najma.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1.21 PPG from 14 outings (5W 2D 7L).
On the road, Al Najma have gone 0W 2D 12L from 14 away games — 0.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Khaleej Saihat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Al Najma are on 0.97 scored and 2.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Al Najma in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Current Season
Al Najma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Najma in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 8W 7D 14L in their last 29 games (1.07 PPG), while Al Najma have gone 2W 5D 22L in their last 29 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al Najma away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.21 PPG; Al Najma away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
0
Al Najma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Najma?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, Al Najma have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Najma last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 3-1 Al Najma.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Najma?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al Najma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 43%, Al Najma 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 71% for Al Najma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 43% of games; Al Najma in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al Najma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al Najma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 57% of Al Najma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Najma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 71% of Al Najma's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Najma tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al Najma in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Najma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Najma 3-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 2.14 xG and Al Najma 1.11 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.94 / defence 1.14 against Al Najma attack 0.70 / defence 1.46, drawn from 62/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 61% | Draw 20% | Al Najma 19%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 66%, Al Najma 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Al Najma's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Khaleej Saihat arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.