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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Full Analysis

King Saud University Stadium plays host to Al-Nassr versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Nassr's overall Pro League record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Al-Nassr at King Saud University Stadium this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium.

Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Nassr's 3.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Al-Nassr have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Al-Ahli Jeddah managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2026, ended 2–3 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 93% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 60% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 69% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.47 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.335 / defence 0.743 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.063 / defence 0.721. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.396. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.721 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Al-Nassr games / 62 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.57. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Nassr 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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