Damac 2-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Damac host Al Okhdood at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 23 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Damac have posted 2W 4D 4L at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Al Okhdood — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Damac are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Damac have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Al Okhdood have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Damac winning.
The historical record gives Damac a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Damac trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Okhdood trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 56% versus Al Okhdood 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al Okhdood 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.41 xG and Al Okhdood 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.795 / defence 0.848 | Al Okhdood attack 0.706 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.409. Damac's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Damac games / 62 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 50% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 22%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Al Okhdood 4.55. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Damac 50% | Al Okhdood 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 50% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Damac 1.41 / Al Okhdood 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.795 / def 0.848 | Al Okhdood attack 0.706 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Damac (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Al Okhdood xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Damac vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 23 April 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Damac 2 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Damac vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Okhdood part of?
Damac vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 50% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Damac and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Okhdood?
Record (5 meetings): Damac 4W | Draws 1 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Damac and Al Okhdood in?
Damac (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Damac's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.68
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Damac xG
Total xG
2.26
0.84
Al Okhdood xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
5%
18.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Damac and 0.84 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Damac's recent record stands at 13W 19D 30L from 62 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Al Okhdood, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 38L across 62 games — 0.81 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 0.94 PPG, Al Okhdood on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Damac have managed 8W 10D 12L from 30 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Okhdood's away record stands at 7W 4D 19L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.90 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Current Season
Al Okhdood
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 13W 19D 30L in their last 62 games (0.94 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 13W 11D 38L in their last 62 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Okhdood away?
Damac's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.13 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Damac go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Damac's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Damac
1
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Damac have won 5, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Damac 2-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Okhdood?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 60%, Al Okhdood 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Damac) and 43% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 27% of games; Al Okhdood in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Damac's recent matches and 43% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Damac's recent games and 43% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Okhdood 2-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.41 xG and Al Okhdood 0.84 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Okhdood landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.80 / defence 0.85 against Al Okhdood attack 0.71 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 50% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 22%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al Okhdood 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 0.94 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.