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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Okhdood encounter.

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Analysis

Al Okhdood make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Al-Ahli Jeddah at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.

Al Okhdood have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.20 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al Okhdood and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% versus Al Okhdood 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Al Okhdood 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.66 xG and Al Okhdood 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.469 / defence 0.729 | Al Okhdood attack 0.649 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.439. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.469 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Okhdood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 64 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 79% | Draw 14% | Al Okhdood 7%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.27 | Draw 7.14 | Al Okhdood 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al Okhdood 50%.

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