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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Al Shabab welcome Al-Fateh to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al Shabab — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Al Shabab have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Shabab register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Fateh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Shabab, 4 for Al-Fateh and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Fateh winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 61% and Al-Fateh 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 55% | Al-Fateh 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.88 xG and Al-Fateh 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.089 / defence 1.232 | Al-Fateh attack 0.852 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.386. Data: 62 Al Shabab games / 62 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 48% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fateh 3.33. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al Shabab carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 70% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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