Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Al Shabab welcome Al-Fateh to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Al Shabab have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Shabab register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Fateh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Shabab, 4 for Al-Fateh and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 61% and Al-Fateh 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 55% | Al-Fateh 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.88 xG and Al-Fateh 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.089 / defence 1.232 | Al-Fateh attack 0.852 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.386. Data: 62 Al Shabab games / 62 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 48% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fateh 3.33. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al Shabab carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 70% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 48% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Al Shabab 1.88 / Al-Fateh 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.089 / def 1.232 | Al-Fateh attack 0.852 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Al-Fateh xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Al Shabab 1 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 48% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
Record (9 meetings): Al Shabab 2W | Draws 3 | Al-Fateh 4W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.09x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
48%
2.10
22%
4.46
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.33
1.46
Al-Fateh xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
5%
21.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.46 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 25W 16D 21L from 62 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 30L across 62 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 1.47 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 15W 5D 10L from 30 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 6W 7D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.32 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 66%.
Last 62 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 25W 16D 21L in their last 62 games (1.47 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 19W 13D 30L in their last 62 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
4
Draws
4
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 67%, Al-Fateh 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Al Shabab) and 50% (Al-Fateh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Shabab's games and 57% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al Shabab's matches and 50% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Al Shabab and Al-Fateh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.88 xG and Al-Fateh 1.46 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Shabab fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.09 / defence 1.23 against Al-Fateh attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 48% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 30%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 55%, Al-Fateh 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.47 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.