NEOM 1-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEOM at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEOM vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Khalid Sports City plays host to NEOM versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NEOM have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEOM have posted 4W 1D 5L at King Khalid Sports City — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for NEOM against 1.60 for Al-Hazm. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — NEOM lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with NEOM winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
NEOM half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEOM 62% and Al-Hazm 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 55% | Al-Hazm 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.33 xG and Al-Hazm 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.776 / defence 1.054 | Al-Hazm attack 0.688 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.382. NEOM's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 NEOM games / 29 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 44% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 28%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Hazm 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NEOM as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEOM if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: NEOM 50% | Al-Hazm 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Apr 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 44% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG NEOM 1.33 / Al-Hazm 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 0.776 / def 1.054 | Al-Hazm attack 0.688 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: NEOM (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al-Hazm xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al-Hazm kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 17:45 on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at King Khalid Sports City.
What was the final score in NEOM vs Al-Hazm?
NEOM 1 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Hazm part of?
NEOM vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 44% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making NEOM the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both NEOM and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): NEOM 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are NEOM and Al-Hazm in?
NEOM (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NEOM's attack rating (0.78) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.69x) against NEOM's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEOM Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.61
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
NEOM xG
Total xG
2.33
1.00
Al-Hazm xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for NEOM and 1.00 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEOM come into this having played 29 games, going 11W 6D 12L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for NEOM against 1.28 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
NEOM's home form reads 5W 2D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hazm have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEOM are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.14 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Current Season
Al-Hazm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 11W 6D 12L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 10W 7D 12L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al-Hazm away?
NEOM's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 1.21 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
NEOM
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Hazm?
From 2 meetings on record, NEOM have won 1, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when NEOM 1-1 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between NEOM and Al-Hazm?
NEOM have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEOM 57%, Al-Hazm 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for NEOM and 57% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of NEOM's games and 57% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEOM vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of NEOM's matches and 57% of Al-Hazm's.
Do NEOM and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEOM and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 30, as NEOM and Al-Hazm drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.33 xG and Al-Hazm 1.00 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against Al-Hazm attack 0.69 / defence 1.10, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEOM 44% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 28%, with NEOM to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 55%, Al-Hazm 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEOM's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEOM 1.34 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.