Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Nassr face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ittihad FC to King Saud University Stadium in Pro League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Friday 6 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Nassr — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Nassr's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Al-Nassr are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Al-Nassr) versus 2.00 (Al-Ittihad FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Nassr's games and 80% of Al-Ittihad FC's (from Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Al-Nassr have won 3, Al-Ittihad FC 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2025, ended Al-Nassr 2–0 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Nassr win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 68% and Al-Ittihad FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 72% | Al-Ittihad FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.06 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.420 / defence 0.855 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.354 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.358. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack rating of 1.420 — their 2.06 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.354, which lifts their away xG to 1.57. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 53 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 53.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.05 | Draw 4.61 | Al-Ittihad FC 3.40. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.06 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Al-Nassr 2.06 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.420 / def 0.855 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.354 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al-Ittihad FC xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC FAQs
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 6 February 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Nassr 2 - 0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 49% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.42x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Nassr's last 53 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
49%
2.05
22%
4.61
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.63
1.57
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
13%
7.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
4%
26.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.57 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 35W 8D 10L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 36W 9D 8L from 53 games, 2.21 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Nassr on 2.13 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC on 2.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.15 PPG from their last 26 home games (17W 5D 4L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 14W 8D 4L from their last 26 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.13 scored and 1.09 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 64%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Nassr (Home) vs Al-Ittihad FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 35W 8D 10L in their last 53 games (2.13 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 36W 9D 8L in their last 53 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.15 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Feb 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Nassr.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Nassr have won 4, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Nassr at 69%, Al-Ittihad FC at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Nassr and 62% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al-Nassr's games and 73% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Nassr's matches and 62% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 73% of Al-Ittihad FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.06 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.57 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.42 / defence 0.85 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 29%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 72%, Al-Ittihad FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.13 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.