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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Hazm.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Hazm (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favour (2.50 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Hazm in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Across 5 previous meetings, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ahli Jeddah and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.

Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% versus Al-Hazm 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% | Al-Hazm 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 xG and Al-Hazm 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.450 / defence 0.763 | Al-Hazm attack 0.870 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.351. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.450 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 19 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 66% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hazm 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al-Hazm 70% BTTS from recent games.

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