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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Najma encounter.

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Full Analysis

King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al Najma in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 1 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al Najma (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Najma away from home this season: 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Ittihad FC's 2.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Al Najma's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 1W, Al Najma 0W, 0D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Al Najma half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 56% and Al Najma 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al Najma 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.71 xG and Al Najma 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.901 / defence 0.804 | Al Najma attack 0.611 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.426. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Al-Ittihad FC games / 18 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 61% | Draw 25% | Al Najma 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Al Najma 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al Najma 67%.

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