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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Okhdood face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al Okhdood welcome Al-Hilal Saudi FC to Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Al Okhdood.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Al Okhdood trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 49% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 47% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.06 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.800 / defence 1.068 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.430 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.351. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.430 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Al Okhdood games / 53 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 18% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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