Al Khaleej Saihat 1-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 38%, yet the head-to-head data favours Al-Nassr — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Nassr travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 14:50 UK time.
Form Guide
Al Khaleej Saihat — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Nassr stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Khaleej Saihat at 1.90 PPG versus Al-Nassr's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Al-Nassr have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 0–1 Al-Nassr — a Al-Nassr win.
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 53% and Al-Nassr 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 49% | Al-Nassr 74%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Khaleej Saihat surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Al-Nassr have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 80% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.44 xG and Al-Nassr 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.115 / defence 0.853 | Al-Nassr attack 1.155 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.439. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 49 games and Al-Nassr's last 49.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 38% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.64 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Nassr 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Khaleej Saihat are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 16 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 14:50 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 38% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.44 / Al-Nassr 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.115 / def 0.853 | Al-Nassr attack 1.155 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Al-Nassr xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr FAQs
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 14:50 UK time on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 16) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 38% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 49 games and Al-Nassr's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
38%
2.64
25%
4.00
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.85
1.42
Al-Nassr xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.42 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 16W 12D 21L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Al-Nassr's form line: 34W 9D 6L from 49 games, 2.27 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Khaleej Saihat.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 24 home games (7W 7D 10L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 18W 3D 3L from their last 24 away games — 2.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.63 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 67%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat (Home) vs Al-Nassr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Form FAQs
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 34W 9D 6L in their last 49 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Mar 2026, when Al-Nassr won Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Nassr.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
7
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Al Khaleej Saihat 1-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al-Nassr 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 79% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 67% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 79% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 71% of Al-Nassr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-3 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.44 xG and Al-Nassr 1.42 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against Al-Nassr attack 1.16 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 38% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 37%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al-Nassr win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 49%, Al-Nassr 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.