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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Raed and Al Okhdood meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Monday 20 January 2025 at 15:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Raed have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Raed's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al Okhdood (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Okhdood have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Al-Raed, 0.80 for Al Okhdood — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Raed have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Okhdood in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Raed, 1 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Al-Raed winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Raed — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 53% versus Al Okhdood 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 55% | Al Okhdood 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.36 xG and Al Okhdood 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.811 / defence 1.058 | Al Okhdood attack 0.976 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.432. Data: 49 Al-Raed games / 49 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 35% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Al Okhdood 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 60% | Al Okhdood 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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