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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

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Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Al-Jouf University Stadium to face Al Orubah in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Al Orubah (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Al Orubah have gone 2W 0D 4L this season (6 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 5W 1D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 8 games (62%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 1.50 PPG clear of Al Orubah in recent Pro League fixtures (2.10 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Trading & In-Play

Al Orubah — key trading statistics (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Orubah 27% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 27%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Orubah 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 0.59 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.526 / defence 1.320 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.078 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.443. Al Orubah's attack strength of 0.526 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Al Orubah games / 15 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Orubah 10% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 72%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 10.00 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Al Orubah 0% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 38% BTTS from recent games.

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