Al Okhdood 1-2 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Okhdood — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Al Khaleej Saihat's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Okhdood register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Okhdood, 1 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 54% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.35 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.897 / defence 1.037 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.991 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.415. Data: 50 Al Okhdood games / 50 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 35% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al Khaleej Saihat 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 35% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Okhdood 1.35 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.897 / def 1.037 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.991 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Okhdood 1 - 2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 35% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (2 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.90x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
35%
2.85
25%
3.97
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.81
1.46
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.46 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 13W 9D 28L from 50 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 22L across 50 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Okhdood on 0.96 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 7W 3D 14L from 24 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record stands at 9W 5D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.16 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 13W 9D 28L in their last 50 games (0.96 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 16W 12D 22L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al Okhdood 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 50%, Al Khaleej Saihat 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al Okhdood) and 42% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 54% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 42% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Khaleej Saihat edge out Al Okhdood 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Okhdood 1-2 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.35 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.46 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 35% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 40%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 54%, Al Khaleej Saihat 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.96 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.