Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Okhdood — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Al Khaleej Saihat's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Okhdood register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Okhdood, 1 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 54% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.35 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.897 / defence 1.037 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.991 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.415. Data: 50 Al Okhdood games / 50 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 35% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al Khaleej Saihat 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Al Okhdood 2 – 3 Al Khaleej Saihat • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Al Okhdood 0% / Draw 50% / Al Khaleej Saihat 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 35% / draw 25% / away 40% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.81 (53% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W • Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L • Al Okhdood home split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | CS 2 • Al Khaleej Saihat away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Form edge: Al Khaleej Saihat lead by 0.50 PPG (1.60 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (Al Okhdood): Poisson projects 1.35 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Al Khaleej Saihat): Poisson projects 1.46 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.8 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.81 (53% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Al Okhdood 6/10, Al Khaleej Saihat 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 57% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Al Khaleej Saihat — Al Khaleej Saihat at 40% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 35% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Okhdood 1.35 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.897 / def 1.037 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.991 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Okhdood 1 - 2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 35% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
• Record (2 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Al Okhdood 2 – 3 Al Khaleej Saihat • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Al Okhdood 0% / Draw 50% / Al Khaleej Saihat 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 35% / draw 25% / away 40% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.81 (53% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
• Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W • Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L • Al Okhdood home split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | CS 2 • Al Khaleej Saihat away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Form edge: Al Khaleej Saihat lead by 0.50 PPG (1.60 vs 1.10) • xG vs form (Al Okhdood): Poisson projects 1.35 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Al Khaleej Saihat): Poisson projects 1.46 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.8 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.81 (53% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Al Okhdood 6/10, Al Khaleej Saihat 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 57% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Al Khaleej Saihat — Al Khaleej Saihat at 40% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture