🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (81%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Wehda Club.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al Wehda Club to Kingdom Arena. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Hilal Saudi FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Kingdom Arena this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at Kingdom Arena than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Wehda Club's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Wehda Club in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al Wehda Club, with 1 draws in between.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57% versus Al Wehda Club 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74% | Al Wehda Club 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.35 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.957 / defence 0.788 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.889 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.443. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.957 — their λ of 3.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Wehda Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 49 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 81% | Draw 11% | Al Wehda Club 8%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.23 | Draw 9.09 | Al Wehda Club 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (81%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 4.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (3.35 / 1.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 4.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Al Wehda Club 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights