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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Al-Fayha welcome Al Kholood to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 20 January 2025 at 15:10 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 4D 4L at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Kholood's away record: 3W 2D 3L from 8 road trips in Pro League this season (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 0.80 PPG, Al Kholood 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 47% versus Al Kholood 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 40% | Al Kholood 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.22 xG and Al Kholood 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.754 / defence 1.018 | Al Kholood attack 0.905 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.447. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Al-Fayha games / 15 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 27% | Al Kholood 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Al Kholood 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Kholood at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Kholood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Kholood 75% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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