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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (79%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Fateh.

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Analysis

Al-Fateh make the trip to Al-Awwal Park to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Nassr have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 5W 4D 1L at Al-Awwal Park — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Al-Nassr's favour (1.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Al-Nassr, who have won 5 of the last 6 meetings against Al-Fateh — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Nassr winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 68% and Al-Fateh 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 74% | Al-Fateh 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.84 xG and Al-Fateh 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.202 / defence 0.787 | Al-Fateh attack 0.731 / defence 1.626. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.409. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.626 — this is suppressing Al-Nassr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Al-Nassr games / 50 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 79% | Draw 13% | Al-Fateh 8%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.27 | Draw 7.69 | Al-Fateh 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (79%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 70% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.

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