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Poisson rates Damac at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Damac travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 January 2025, 14:55 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh Club Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Damac are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Damac in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 1 for Damac and 4 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Damac in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 74% and Damac 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 65% | Damac 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.34 xG and Damac 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.870 / defence 1.170 | Damac attack 0.974 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.443. Data: 49 Al-Fateh games / 49 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 31% | Draw 24% | Damac 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 2.22. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 90% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jan 2025, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (6 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 4 | Damac 1W • Goals trend: 4.17 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Al-Fateh 13 – 12 Damac • H2H markets: BTTS 83% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Al-Fateh 17% / Draw 67% / Damac 17% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 31% / draw 24% / away 45% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.17 goals/game (67% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.98 (57% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 83%, Poisson BTTS probability 60% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Al-Fateh (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L • Damac (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L • Al-Fateh home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | CS 1 • Damac away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | CS 2 • Form edge: Damac lead by 1.20 PPG (1.50 vs 0.30) • xG vs form (Al-Fateh): Poisson xG of 1.34 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Damac): Poisson projects 1.64 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.98 (57% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Al-Fateh 9/10, Damac 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 60% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Damac — Damac at 45% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 31% | Draw 24% | Damac 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Fateh 1.34 / Damac 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.870 / def 1.170 | Damac attack 0.974 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Damac (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Damac xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Damac kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Damac kicked off at 14:55 on Wednesday 22 January 2025 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Al-Fateh 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Damac part of?
Al-Fateh vs Damac is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 31% chance of winning, Damac a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Fateh and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Damac?
• Record (6 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 4 | Damac 1W • Goals trend: 4.17 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Al-Fateh 13 – 12 Damac • H2H markets: BTTS 83% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: Al-Fateh 17% / Draw 67% / Damac 17% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 31% / draw 24% / away 45% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.17 goals/game (67% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.98 (57% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 83%, Poisson BTTS probability 60% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Al-Fateh and Damac in?
• Al-Fateh (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L • Damac (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L • Al-Fateh home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | CS 1 • Damac away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | CS 2 • Form edge: Damac lead by 1.20 PPG (1.50 vs 0.30) • xG vs form (Al-Fateh): Poisson xG of 1.34 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Damac): Poisson projects 1.64 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.98 (57% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Al-Fateh 9/10, Damac 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 60% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Damac — Damac at 45% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Al-Fateh vs Damac?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture