Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Ittihad FC at home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Al-Ittihad FC against 0.90 for Al Khaleej Saihat. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Al-Ittihad FC, who have won 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Al Khaleej Saihat — Al Khaleej Saihat have 0 wins, with 3 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Al-Ittihad FC 4–4 Al Khaleej Saihat — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 65% and Al Khaleej Saihat 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 56% | Al Khaleej Saihat 63%). Note also that Al Khaleej Saihat surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Al-Ittihad FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.882 / defence 0.786 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.081 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.385. Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output up. Al-Ittihad FC have a tight defence (rating 0.786), which is pulling Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 57 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 57.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al Khaleej Saihat 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.19 | Draw 3.71 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3.65. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Ittihad FC 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Khaleej Saihat 100% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al Khaleej Saihat 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.882 / def 0.786 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.081 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 27 February 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 46% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (1.08x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 57 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.71
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.18
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
6%
17.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.18 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 57 games, going 37W 11D 9L for 2.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.12 PPG from 57 outings (17W 13D 27L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 23W 1D 4L across their last 28 home games, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 28 away games (8W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.44 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 63%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC (Home) vs Al Khaleej Saihat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 37W 11D 9L in their last 57 games (2.14 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 13D 27L in their last 57 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won Al Khaleej Saihat 0-3 Al-Ittihad FC on 3 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for Al-Ittihad FC, 82% for Al Khaleej Saihat — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Al-Ittihad FC and 75% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 82% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 75% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 79% of Al Khaleej Saihat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.18 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.79 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.08 / defence 1.22, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al Khaleej Saihat 27%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 56%, Al Khaleej Saihat 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.