Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Hazm face Al Kholood.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Hazm and Al Kholood meet at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Hazm's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Hazm at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Kholood (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al Kholood have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Al-Hazm against 1.30 for Al Kholood. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Al-Hazm edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2025, ended Al-Hazm 2–1 Al Kholood — a Al-Hazm win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Al Kholood half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 64% versus Al Kholood 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hazm 64% | Al Kholood 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.38 xG and Al Kholood 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.902 / defence 1.405 | Al Kholood attack 1.124 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.431. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.405 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Kholood's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 25 games and Al Kholood's last 59.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 22% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 57%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 4.54 | Draw 4.74 | Al Kholood 1.76. The model has a clear lean to Al Kholood (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.38 / 2.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al Kholood as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.64 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 10 home games and Al Kholood's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Kholood 50% (last 10 away games).

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