Al-Fayha 3-0 Al Najma – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Najma encounter.

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Full Analysis

King Abdullah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Najma in Pro League (matchday 21). Kick-off: Thursday 5 February 2026 at 15:20 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Fayha have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al-Fayha at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Al Najma (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Najma's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Fayha's 0.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al Najma's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Al-Fayha, 0 for Al Najma and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Al-Fayha 2–1 Al Najma — a Al-Fayha win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al Najma — key trading statistics (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 53% and Al Najma 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 53% | Al Najma 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.54 xG and Al Najma 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.870 / defence 0.961 | Al Najma attack 0.580 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.357. Al Najma's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Al Najma's attack rating of 0.580 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 53 games and Al Najma's last 19.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 55% | Draw 27% | Al Najma 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.81 | Draw 3.72 | Al Najma 5.63. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fayha (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 40% (last 10 home games) | Al Najma 60% (last 10 away games).

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