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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al-Shabab Club Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 1 February 2026 at 15:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al Shabab have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 3W 3D 4L at Al-Shabab Club Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Al Shabab, 0.90 for Al-Fayha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al-Fayha in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Al Shabab have had the better of this match-up — 7 wins from 9 meetings, with Al-Fayha managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Shabab and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 60% versus Al-Fayha 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Al-Fayha 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.88 xG and Al-Fayha 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.920 / defence 1.051 | Al-Fayha attack 0.796 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.438. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Al Shabab games / 52 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 52% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fayha 4.17. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 80% | Al-Fayha 60% BTTS from recent games.

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