🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al Shabab at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Al-Shabab Club Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Monday 27 January 2025 at 15:10 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al Shabab have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 5W 1D 4L at Al-Shabab Club Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Al Shabab, 1.00 for Al-Fayha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Al Shabab have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 6 meetings, with Al-Fayha managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2024, ended 2–3 with Al-Fayha winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Shabab and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 50% versus Al-Fayha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 50% | Al-Fayha 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.50 xG and Al-Fayha 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.015 / defence 0.976 | Al-Fayha attack 0.887 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.402. Data: 50 Al Shabab games / 50 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 44% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fayha 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 80% | Al-Fayha 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights