Al Shabab 2-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Shabab Club Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Monday 27 January 2025 at 15:10 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 5W 1D 4L at Al-Shabab Club Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Al Shabab, 1.00 for Al-Fayha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al Shabab have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Al-Fayha managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2024, ended 2–3 with Al-Fayha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Shabab and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 50% versus Al-Fayha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 50% | Al-Fayha 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.50 xG and Al-Fayha 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.015 / defence 0.976 | Al-Fayha attack 0.887 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.402. Data: 50 Al Shabab games / 50 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 44% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fayha 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 80% | Al-Fayha 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jan 2025, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 44% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Shabab 1.50 / Al-Fayha 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.015 / def 0.976 | Al-Fayha attack 0.887 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 15:10 on Monday 27 January 2025 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Al Shabab 2 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 44% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fayha?
Record (5 meetings): Al Shabab 4W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fayha in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.01) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.89x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
44%
2.29
25%
3.93
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.71
1.22
Al-Fayha xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.22 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 20W 10D 20L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha's form line: 14W 17D 19L from 50 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.18 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (12W 4D 9L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 8W 8D 9L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.14 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 20W 10D 20L in their last 50 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 14W 17D 19L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.60 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al Shabab
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 7, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Al Shabab 0-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Fayha?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Al Shabab, 72% for Al-Fayha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Shabab and 64% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al Shabab's games and 72% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Shabab's matches and 64% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Fayha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Fayha 2-1 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.50 xG and Al-Fayha 1.22 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Al-Fayha attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 44% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 31%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 50%, Al-Fayha 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.40 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.