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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Ar-Rass Stadium plays host to Al Kholood versus Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 25 January 2025 at 13:50 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al Kholood have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Kholood's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 games at Ar-Rass Stadium this term (0.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game.

Al-Raed (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al Kholood's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Trading

Al Kholood half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 56% versus Al-Raed 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 50% | Al-Raed 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.47 xG and Al-Raed 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.866 / defence 1.215 | Al-Raed attack 0.972 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.434. Data: 16 Al Kholood games / 50 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 34% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 43%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Raed 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Kholood (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Al Kholood 43% | Al-Raed 50%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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