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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Al Okhdood host Al-Fayha at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 16 January 2025 at 13:55 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 3D 5L at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Okhdood at 1.10 PPG versus Al-Fayha's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Okhdood, 2 for Al-Fayha and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Al-Fayha winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Al-Fayha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 54% | Al-Fayha 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.37 xG and Al-Fayha 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.925 / defence 0.940 | Al-Fayha attack 0.794 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.458. Data: 48 Al Okhdood games / 48 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Okhdood 50% | Al-Fayha 50%.

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