Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa host Radomiak Radom at zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 8 February 2026 at 13:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Raków Częstochowa — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Radomiak Radom have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Raków Częstochowa at 1.80 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 90% of Radomiak Radom's (from Raków Częstochowa's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Raków Częstochowa: 5 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for Radomiak Radom, with 2 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2025, ended Raków Częstochowa 1–3 Radomiak Radom — a Radomiak Radom win.
The head-to-head data gives Raków Częstochowa an edge — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 48% versus Radomiak Radom 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 44% | Radomiak Radom 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.68 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.852 / defence 0.961 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.063 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.236. Radomiak Radom's defence rating of 1.269 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Raków Częstochowa's projected output up. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 53 games and Radomiak Radom's last 52.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 46% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 28%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.15 | Draw 3.93 | Radomiak Radom 3.56. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Raków Częstochowa 5 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Raków Częstochowa's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 60% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 20 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 13:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 46% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.68 / Radomiak Radom 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.852 / def 0.961 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.063 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Radomiak Radom xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 13:45 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Raków Częstochowa 0 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 20) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 46% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Raków Częstochowa's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Raków Częstochowa's last 53 games and Radomiak Radom's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
46%
2.15
25%
3.93
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.94
1.26
Radomiak Radom xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
5%
19.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.26 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 28W 11D 13L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 18W 13D 21L from 52 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.69 PPG from their last 26 home games (13W 5D 8L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 6W 6D 14L from their last 26 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.60 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 71%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Raków Częstochowa (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 28W 11D 13L in their last 52 games (1.83 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 18W 13D 21L in their last 52 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.69 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Sep 2022, when Raków Częstochowa won Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Radomiak Radom.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2026: Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 54%, Radomiak Radom 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Raków Częstochowa and 77% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 73% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Raków Częstochowa's matches and 77% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 81% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Raków Częstochowa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.68 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.26 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.06 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 46% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 28%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 44%, Radomiak Radom 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.