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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 68%, yet in-form Radomiak Radom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 13:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.

Radomiak Radom (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Radomiak Radom are 0.70 PPG clear of Pogon Szczecin in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Pogon Szczecin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Radomiak Radom in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 4W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 1–5 with Radomiak Radom winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 49% versus Radomiak Radom 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 57% | Radomiak Radom 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.99 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.364 / defence 1.124 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.061 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.214. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 2.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Pogon Szczecin games / 51 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 68% | Draw 17% | Radomiak Radom 15%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | Radomiak Radom 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.99 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Radomiak Radom (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.44 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.

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