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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Arka Gdynia at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arka Gdynia vs Legia Warszawa encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 20 as Arka Gdynia welcome Legia Warszawa to Stadion Miejski w Gdyni. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 13:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Arka Gdynia have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arka Gdynia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Arka Gdynia's home record at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni: 6W 2D 1L from 9 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Arka Gdynia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni than their overall form suggests.

Legia Warszawa — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Legia Warszawa's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Arka Gdynia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Arka Gdynia register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Arka Gdynia, 0 for Legia Warszawa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Arka Gdynia trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Legia Warszawa trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arka Gdynia 44% versus Legia Warszawa 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arka Gdynia 50% | Legia Warszawa 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Arka Gdynia 1.53 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arka Gdynia attack 0.926 / defence 1.074 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.886 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.233. Data: 18 Arka Gdynia games / 53 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 45% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 28%. Fair-value odds: Arka Gdynia 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Legia Warszawa 3.57. Arka Gdynia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Arka Gdynia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arka Gdynia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arka Gdynia 67% | Legia Warszawa 70% BTTS from recent games.

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