🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 20 as Lechia Gdansk welcome Cracovia Krakow to Polsat Plus Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Lechia Gdansk — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 5W 2D 3L at Polsat Plus Arena — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cracovia Krakow's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

On current form, Lechia Gdansk have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Lechia Gdansk, 3 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 70% and Cracovia Krakow 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 64% | Cracovia Krakow 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.66 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.321 / defence 1.100 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.889 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.236. Lechia Gdansk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Lechia Gdansk games / 53 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 27%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Cracovia Krakow 3.70. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 80% | Cracovia Krakow 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights