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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadion im. Braci Czachorów plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Radomiak Radom have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Radomiak Radom have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Korona Kielce's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Radomiak Radom's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Korona Kielce's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Korona Kielce in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Radomiak Radom 2W, Korona Kielce 4W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Korona Kielce winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 70% and Korona Kielce 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 66% | Korona Kielce 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.68 xG and Korona Kielce 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.274 / defence 0.854 | Korona Kielce attack 1.040 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.188. Radomiak Radom carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Radomiak Radom games / 54 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 51% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 23%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Korona Kielce 4.35. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

Korona Kielce lead the H2H ledger, but Radomiak Radom carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Korona Kielce 60% BTTS from recent games.

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