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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wisla Plock face Raków Częstochowa.

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Full Analysis

Orlen Stadion plays host to Wisla Plock versus Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 1 February 2026 at 13:45 UTC.

Form

Wisla Plock (all games): 2W 8D 0L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Wisla Plock at Orlen Stadion this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Orlen Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Orlen Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Raków Częstochowa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Raków Częstochowa are 0.70 PPG clear of Wisla Plock in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Wisla Plock 1W, Raków Częstochowa 3W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 2–1 with Wisla Plock winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).

Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 56% versus Raków Częstochowa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wisla Plock 17% | Raków Częstochowa 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.08 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.781 / defence 0.789 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.261 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.236. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Raków Częstochowa have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Wisla Plock's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 18 Wisla Plock games / 52 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 31% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 38%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 30% | Raków Częstochowa 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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