Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Nieciecza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin host Nieciecza at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nieciecza stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nieciecza's away record: 3W 2D 4L from 9 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pogon Szczecin at 1.10 PPG versus Nieciecza's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pogon Szczecin register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Nieciecza in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Nieciecza and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games).
Nieciecza trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 68% and Nieciecza 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 68% | Nieciecza 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.59 xG and Nieciecza 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.268 / defence 1.111 | Nieciecza attack 0.971 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.241. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 2.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nieciecza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Pogon Szczecin games / 19 Nieciecza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 64% | Draw 18% | Nieciecza 18%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.56 | Draw 5.56 | Nieciecza 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.59 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.92 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 80% | Nieciecza 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 64% | Draw 18% | Nieciecza 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 68% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.59 / Nieciecza 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.268 / def 1.111 | Nieciecza attack 0.971 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Nieciecza xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 1 Nieciecza.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 64% chance of winning, Nieciecza a 18% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza?
Record (3 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 2 | Nieciecza 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Nieciecza (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.27) and Nieciecza's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nieciecza's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
64%
1.56
18%
5.56
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.92
1.34
Nieciecza xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.56
18%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
8%
13.28
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
1%
74.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.34 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 6W 3D 10L from 19 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nieciecza, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 10L across 19 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.11 PPG, Nieciecza on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 5W 1D 3L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nieciecza's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Nieciecza are on 1.26 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Nieciecza in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Nieciecza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 6W 3D 10L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Nieciecza have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Nieciecza away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.78 PPG; Nieciecza away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Nieciecza specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
0
Nieciecza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza?
From 4 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, Nieciecza have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Nieciecza.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pogon Szczecin at 78%, Nieciecza at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for Pogon Szczecin and 56% for Nieciecza. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Nieciecza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Nieciecza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 67% of Nieciecza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Nieciecza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 56% of Nieciecza's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Nieciecza in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin and Nieciecza finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.59 xG and Nieciecza 1.34 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.27 / defence 1.11 against Nieciecza attack 0.97 / defence 1.29, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 64% | Draw 18% | Nieciecza 18%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 68%, Nieciecza 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Nieciecza's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.11 PPG, Nieciecza 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Nieciecza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.