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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Piast Gliwice and Wisla Plock meet at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Monday 9 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Piast Gliwice (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Wisla Plock have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 7D 0L. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Wisla Plock's away record: 1W 6D 1L from 8 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.60 for Wisla Plock. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Piast Gliwice, 2 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Wisla Plock winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 47% versus Wisla Plock 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 42% | Wisla Plock 21%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.19 xG and Wisla Plock 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.848 / defence 0.827 | Wisla Plock attack 0.829 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.200. Data: 53 Piast Gliwice games / 19 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 32% | Wisla Plock 24%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Wisla Plock 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 30% | Wisla Plock 88%.

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