Tromso 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tromso at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 29 as Tromso welcome Haugesund to Romssa Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Tromso have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tromso have posted 7W 1D 2L at Romssa Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Tromso have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Tromso, 2 for Haugesund and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Tromso winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tromso trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Haugesund trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tromso 69% and Haugesund 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 60% | Haugesund 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.08 xG and Haugesund 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.851 / defence 0.922 | Haugesund attack 0.799 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.357. Haugesund's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Tromso games / 58 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 37% | Draw 30% | Haugesund 33%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Haugesund 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tromso are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Tromso 70% | Haugesund 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 37% | Draw 30% | Haugesund 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Tromso 1.08 / Haugesund 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.851 / def 0.922 | Haugesund attack 0.799 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Tromso (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Haugesund xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Haugesund kick off?
Tromso vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Haugesund?
Tromso 2 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Tromso vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Haugesund part of?
Tromso vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 37% chance of winning, Haugesund a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Tromso and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Haugesund?
Record (5 meetings): Tromso 2W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Tromso and Haugesund in?
Tromso (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Haugesund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tromso's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.32
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.08
1.00
Haugesund xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Tromso and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Tromso and 1.00 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tromso come into this having played 58 games, going 28W 16D 14L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.17 PPG from 58 outings (18W 14D 26L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Tromso carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Tromso's home form reads 16W 7D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.90 points per game from 29 outings (6W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tromso are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.24 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 28W 16D 14L in their last 58 games (1.72 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 18W 14D 26L in their last 58 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Haugesund away?
Tromso's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.90 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2021, when Haugesund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tromso's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tromso
1
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 5, Haugesund have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Haugesund?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 69%, Haugesund 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Tromso) and 48% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Tromso's games and 45% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Tromso's matches and 48% of Haugesund's.
Do Tromso and Haugesund tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Haugesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Haugesund 2-1 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.08 xG and Haugesund 1.00 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Tromso beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.85 / defence 0.92 against Haugesund attack 0.80 / defence 0.73, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 37% | Draw 30% | Haugesund 33%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 60%, Haugesund 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.