ODD Ballklubb 1-2 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tromso at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb host Tromso at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 5W 3D 2L at Skagerak Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tromso stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tromso are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, Tromso 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 1–0 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Tromso trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 53% and Tromso 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 53% | Tromso 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.34 xG and Tromso 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.886 / defence 0.849 | Tromso attack 1.264 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 1.393. Tromso have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 ODD Ballklubb games / 57 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 34% | Draw 25% | Tromso 41%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Tromso 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 50% | Tromso 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 34% | Draw 25% | Tromso 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.34 / Tromso 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.886 / def 0.849 | Tromso attack 1.264 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.793 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Tromso (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Tromso xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 2 Tromso.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 34% chance of winning, Tromso a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Tromso?
Record (5 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 3W | Draws 0 | Tromso 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Tromso in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Tromso (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.89) and Tromso's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
34%
2.94
25%
4.00
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.84
1.49
Tromso xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.49 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 57 games, going 22W 13D 22L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tromso sit at 1.70 PPG from 57 outings (27W 16D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.39 PPG, Tromso on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 14W 5D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Tromso have taken 1.50 points per game from 28 outings (11W 9D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.56 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso in 68%.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Tromso in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 22W 13D 22L in their last 57 games (1.39 PPG), while Tromso have gone 27W 16D 14L in their last 57 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Tromso away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.68 PPG; Tromso away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Tromso won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Tromso specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
4
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Tromso?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Tromso have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-0 Tromso.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 54%, Tromso 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (ODD Ballklubb) and 57% (Tromso).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 68% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 57% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Tromso tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Tromso in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out ODD Ballklubb 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat ODD Ballklubb 1-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.34 xG and Tromso 1.49 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.89 / defence 0.85 against Tromso attack 1.26 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 34% | Draw 25% | Tromso 41%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 53%, Tromso 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.39 PPG, Tromso 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.